The USDA Superior National Forest recently released their visitor use report. While numbers have returned to pre-Covid levels, cancellations continue to rise. Federal officials and local outfitters consider the possible reasons behind this trend.
Use has returned to pre-pandemic levels
In 2023, wilderness visitors totaled 146,238. Following a sharp increase in numbers during the pandemic and the succeeding years, the totals in 2023 returned to pre-pandemic levels. While weather, wildfires, the economy, and public health crises like the pandemic all influenced the data, it reflects a broader trend over the past five years. The Forest Service made changes to the quota system in 2022, which contributed to some of these shifts. This return to previous usage levels is better for environmental, social, and physical resources.
All visitors are required to carry a permit. Although the group limit is set at nine, groups typically average around four people. According to the data, most visitors are adults, with seniors and people with disabilities making up the smallest groups.
Overnight paddlers, who visit between May and September, make up the majority of users. According to the report, “In 2023, 92% of visitors traveled to the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW) from May 1 to September 30, during the mandatory quota season. Only 8% of visitors came during the non-quota season from October 1 to April 30.”
Reservations and trends
Each year, individuals can obtain a permit for one of the ninety-five entry points. However, there are restrictions.
Quota permits limit the number of groups entering the wilderness each day by controlling the number of permits issued for each entry point. Managing visitor use reduces damage to natural resources and minimizes environmental impact. This ensures the area remains protected for future visitors. While summer is the peak season, August is the most popular month for recreationists.
Between May and September, visitors reserved over 20,000 overnight paddle quota permits. The total number of self-issued permits for all activities throughout the year exceeded 15,000. The least amount of permits were reserved for snowshoeing or hiking. Though hiking numbers continue to rise, they remain relatively low. Not surprisingly, winter is the quietest season for all visitors.
Cancellations continue to rise
Quota permit cancellations have more than doubled over the past five years, with visitors reserving more permits than they ultimately use. Outfitters and other users have long argued that the current system needs to change, citing concerns about permit “hoarding,” which prevents others from accessing the BWCAW.
In 2023, visitors canceled 10,245 permits across all activities, including paddling, overnight hiking, and motorboat use. Overnight paddlers accounted for the majority of these cancellations. While the Forest Service doesn’t have a direct way to determine what percentage of those cancellations were resold, they are hoping to change that. Joy VanDrie, Public Affairs Staff Officer with the Forest Service, said, “We are beginning to analyze how many permits canceled close to the entry date are resold and issued to other visitors.”
Percevied high demand, limited supply
Outfitters attribute the increase in cancellations to a few key reasons. Tim Barton, outfitting manager at Piragis Northwoods Company, said, “I think people go online, book their wishlist, and see how their schedule goes.” He has also noticed more short-term cancellations this year and observed that popular entry points, which were previously unavailable, now show open dates in July and August. With the pressure to secure a permit in January, people tend to cancel as the summer progresses.
Jason Zabokrtsky, founder and wilderness guide of Ely Outfitting Company, agrees. He explains that part of the issue stems from travelers being uncertain about their summer schedules. However, because of the perceived high demand and limited supply, they worry that delaying their trip date adjustments will result in all the permits being taken. He mentioned that people often book permits for several dates and then cancel the ones they no longer need. Zabokrtsky believes this trend began after the USFS reduced permits by 13% in 2022, just a week before they were set to become available. “It created a frenzy of concern among BWCAW users, who feared the permit supply was dwindling at a time when demand was increasing. This panic only drove the demand for permits even higher,” he said.
The Forest Service offered its perspective, stating, “We noticed a rise in cancellations and no-shows corresponding with the pandemic in 2020. We suspect a scarcity mindset regarding permit availability set in after 2020, with the surge in visitor use during the pandemic. However, cancellation and no-show trends are moving in the right direction.”
It remains unclear where most cancellations originate—whether from people booking directly online, through an outfitter, the Forest Service, or a mix of these sources.
Wilderness regulations
Between April 1 and October 1, visitors planning an overnight paddle, motor, or hiking trip, or a motorized day trip into the wilderness, must obtain a quota permit online. Issuing stations provide walk-up permits, but they limit the number available based on the quotas for each entry point. The Forest Service still recommends people make reservations. Between October 1 and April 1, visitors can pick up a self-issued permit at Forest Service offices or kiosks at entry point trailheads.
Quota permits for all entry points become available online on the last Wednesday of January at 9:00 am CST. Wilderness regulations limit each group to a maximum of nine people and four watercraft. Smaller groups enhance the wilderness experience, increase the likelihood of spotting wildlife, and help reduce the impact on resources. The Forest Service encourages visitors to reserve only the permits they can use so others can experience the BWCAW.
The 2024 visitor use report is expected to be published in the spring of 2025.
More info:
- Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness Permit and Visitor Use Report – USDA Superior National Forest
- Paddlers cancel record number of Boundary Waters permits in 2023 – The Minnesota Star Tribune
- Planning a BWCAW trip – USDA Superior National Forest
Wilderness guide and outdoorswoman Pam Wright has been exploring wild places since her youth. Remaining curious, she has navigated remote lakes in Canada by canoe, backpacked some of the highest mountains in the Sierra Nevada, and completed a thru-hike of the Superior Hiking Trail. Her professional roles include working as a wilderness guide in northern Minnesota and providing online education for outdoor enthusiasts.